OECD Interim Economic Outlook 2019: "Warning: Low Growth Ahead"
The global outlook has become increasingly fragile and uncertain. Global growth is projected to slow to 2.9% in 2019 and 3% in 2020. These would be the weakest annual growth rates since the financial crisis, with downside risks continuing to mount.
Substantial uncertainty persists about the timing and nature of the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union. A no-deal exit would be costly in the near-term, potentially pushing the United Kingdom into recession in 2020 and reducing growth in Europe considerably.
Collective effort is urgent to halt the build-up of trade-distorting tariffs and subsidies and to restore a transparent and predictable rules-based system that encourages businesses to invest.
In the euro area, using fiscal and structural policies alongside monetary policy would be more effective for growth and create fewer financial distortions than continuing to rely mainly on monetary policy.