On 21 November, OECD published its yearly Economic Outlook
On 12 November, OECD published its yearly Economic Outlook. Its key messages are the following.
First, global growth is slowing. The global growth is set to weaken on the back of slower trade growth and less supportive policies. As well, inflation has yet to pick up. On the other hand, the OECD unemployment rate is at record low and wages are growing modestly. Second, there might be some new threats coming up in the near future. Tariff hikes are slowing growth (and could disrupt value chains and jobs). Emerging markets remain vulnerable to rising US rates and capital outflows. Thirdly, OECD advises to enhance cooperation and prepare for more difficult times. Cooperation is needed to reduce uncertainty, avoid protectionism, and act in face of a downturn. The Euro Area needs to be strengthened by completing the banking union and progressing on a common fiscal capacity. And last, but not least, actions need to be stepped up to reduce inequality and improve trust in governments.
With regards to Slovenia, the economic growth is projected to slow significantly in 2019 and 2020. Export-market gains will decelerate due to higher wages. The fiscal policy stance is projected to remain expansionary in 2019 and turn neutral in 2020. The budget surplus will narrow in 2019, also due to a slower economic growth. A larger surplus is needed to contain inflationary pressures and to ensure continued debt reduction.
A full document is available at the following link: http://www.oecd.org/eco/outlook/economic-outlook/